Value of 1-Round Bye and 2-Round Bye
A month before a Yu-Gi-Oh! Open Tournament (YOT), Regionals are held across Asia to give players a chance for a free-entry to the respective YOT, as well as awarding bye for the main event.
This article will attempt to evaluate if the bye awarded are actually worth the time and effort to play in the Regionals.
Edit: It has come to my attention that the 1-round bye was implemented incorrectly in this tournament, and would unfortunately nullify the whole article.
A score of 7-0 or 6-1 will guarantee a spot in the Top 64, while a 5-2 will boil down to tiebreakers. This translates to a match-win percentage of 100%, 85.7% and 71.4% respectively.
Bye provides an advantage by allowing the player to qualify for Top 64 with a score of 5-0, 4-1 and maybe 3-2. This translates to a lower match-win percentage of 100%, 80% and 60% respectively.
The hypothesis proposes that a 1-round bye or 2-round bye provides the player with an advantage in qualifying for Top 64.
The Yu-Gi-Oh! Open Tournament Singapore 2015 held earlier this year saw 201 players left at the end of 7 rounds of Swiss.
The final standing of this tournament will be used to compare and evaluate whether 1-round bye or 2-round bye provides the player with enough advantage in qualifying for Top 64.
Players who had dropped out from the tournament are excluded from the final standing as they can no longer qualify for Top 64.
|Total||7-0||6-1||5-2||Top 64||5-2 but not in Top 64|
On initial inspection, the advantage of the bye is obvious. 62.5% of players with 1-round bye or 2-round bye qualified for Top 64.
For no bye, 24 out of 32 players (75%) who made the minimal overall score of 5-2 or better managed to qualify for Top 64. This will be the control that will be used as the benchmark.
For 1-round bye, 22 out of 36 players (61.1%) who made the minimal overall score of 5-2 or better managed to qualify for Top 64. The advantage provided by a 1-round bye is dubious as 14 players lost out in the tiebreakers.
For 2-round bye, 18 out of 20 players (90%) who made the minimal overall score of 5-2 or better managed to qualify for Top 64. This is strong evidence of the advantage provided by a 2-round bye as only 2 players lose out in the tiebreakers.
A 2-round bye provides a significant advantage. Players with 2 round-bye enters the tournament in Round 3 and are paired with players that are 2-0. This results in an overall stronger tiebreaker as they are paired with players with a good match-win percentage and are likely to play through the whole Swiss rounds.
Although Players with 1-round bye enters the tournament in Round 2 and are paired with players that are 1-0, they do not enjoy a significant advantage. Players with a 1-0 score may not necessarily translate to a good match-win percentage as defeating them would drop them to a 1-1 score. This implies that the tiebreaker of a player with 1-round bye is not that different to a player with no bye.
The hypothesis that a 1-round bye or 2-round bye provides the player with an advantage in qualifying for the Top 64 stands largely correct. 62.5% of players with 1-round bye or 2-round bye qualified for Top 64 is sufficient evidence. However, a 1-round bye does not provide enough advantage in terms of tiebreakers.
Nonetheless, this evaluation is based solely on only 1 tournament and as such, is insufficient to conclusively evaluate the hypothesis. Further testing is required.
The prizes of the YOT Hong Kong 2015 Regionals have been changed to award 2-round bye for the 2nd placing instead of 1-round bye. This makes it much more worthwhile to participate in the Regionals as a 2-round bye is quite a significant advantage.